Onlinedotnet Predicts the 2025 NASCAR Cup Playoffs

NASCAR is a sport of parity and of parody. Throughout its 7 decades of existence, the sanctioning body has seen its way through motor racing's technological growth, but also meddling with the natural racing that takes place on the track. As we come to the final 10 races of the season, we are about to witness the most cited example of NASCAR's "interference". The Playoffs. God, I can't tell you the number of arguments I have seen on social media about the playoffs. Despite what the talking heads in the media may tell you, a majority of fans loathe the concept, due in part to the "win and you're in" doctrine. If you win just one race in the regular season, you automatically qualify for the playoffs. Now you might be thinking, "Wouldn't this allow some random midpack driver to compete for a title rather than someone who has arguably better performance?" Just ask defending champion Joey Logano. His path to the title was probably one of the more controversial in NASCAR's modern era. Having one win in the regular season, Logano easily qualified. He was originally eliminated in the Round of 12 cutoff race at the Charlotte Roval, but after one failed tech inspection for Alex Bowman, he was back in competition, and eventually ended up being the one doing the burnout at Phoenix. Holy shit, did that get people mad. Not that there's already a contingent of people who hate Logano, but people thought there were contenders more worthy of the win. Alas, "win and you're in" is the system we live in, and it's the system where 16 drivers find themselves as they figuratively brawl to the death and crown a new champion. So, let's skim through Racing Reference and make hasty predictions about who will be the next Cup champion!

Josh Berry - 16th

Face it. None of us were expecting Wood Brothers to win at Las Vegas, of all places. Especially with as many unknowns as Berry had after a lackluster rookie season with the now-defunct Stewart-Haas Racing. So it was a fun surprise to see the #21 actually be up front and competing in the first few races of 2025. However, Berry always had something go wrong for him. Crashes at Daytona, Atlanta, and Darlington, along with a battery issue at Martinsville. After a retraction in performance in the 2nd half, I think Berry's going to be out early. He will probably do well at Bristol and the other short tracks, but any hope for the Wood Brothers' elusive first championship will have to wait.

Austin Dillon - 15th

Wait, he actually won a race on his own merit? He didn't have to take anyone out or rely on a literal act of God [see: Summer Daytona 2022]? I suppose it's a bit more of a respectable way to enter the playoffs, but every postseason appearance of his has ended in an early exit, and I don't see it changing this year. He ain't the real #3.

Shane Van Gisbergen - 14th

SVG is in the midst of a run that NASCAR has never seen before. For those unaware of the legend, the 38-year-old Kiwi made his name in Australian Supercars before shocking everyone and winning the Chicago Street Course in 2023, his first race in NASCAR. It's all been upward since then. He has dominated the right turns in his first full-time year in Cup, winning 4 out of 5 road races in the regular season. Then there's the ovals. He has been improving as of late, but with an average finish of 21.1 on the season, his odds to advance past the Round of 16 don't look good. If he figures out the ovals, though... God help us all.

Austin Cindric - 13th

Cindric is a driver that I just don't really care for. I don't hate him; in fact, he sounds like a cool dude. On the track is a different story. The #2 can pull off some good finishes, with Cindric scoring a 5th-place finish at the summer Richmond race not too long ago. But compared to his other teammates with Team Penske? Not a chance.

Chase Briscoe - 12th

When Briscoe was announced as the replacement for Truex Jr. in the #19, a lot were unaware just how he would step up to such a large team as Joe Gibbs Racing. It's worked out, with Briscoe winning 6 poles, the most of any Cup driver this season. Not to mention 10 finishes within the top 5 and a win at Pocono. Despite the stats, Briscoe is the weakest link out of JGR's 3 playoff cars, and doesn't look like he'll go on a deep run.

Ross Chastain - 11th

Another shocking winner in the driver list, with Chastain managing to win the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte after starting dead last in the field. That qualifying result, however, is his Achilles' heel. Quite a few starts in the 20s & 30s. He can usually recover from such bad starts, but it's not going to make up for success here.

Alex Bowman - 10th

Bowman is just Chevy's version of Austin Cindric. He's just there. He's consistent; he has 14 top 10s, but obviously not championship material. Also, let the webmaster's bias toward RFK Racing be known, and put it on the record that Bowman is only in here because Ryan Blaney won the race at Daytona last week.

Bubba Wallace - 9th

Despite what some mouth-breather on Facebook may tell you, Bubba knows how to sling a wheel. He collected his first career crown jewel win with an impressive fuel save at the Brickyard 400. Bubba does indeed get involved in a couple of wrecks, collecting 7 DNFs on the season so far. However, don't write him off immediately. He can snag a few top 10s if the car runs clearly. Probably won't add up to a further run than the Round of 12.

Chase Elliott - 8th

Good ol' William Clyde II has been in a bit of malaise ever since he missed 6 races in 2023 due to a snowboarding injury. Elliott has only won 2 races post-injury, one of them being the summer Atlanta race this year. Expect his name to be mentioned in the hunt, but he just isn't going to go any further than 8th. He'll still get that Most Popular Driver award, though. Suckers.

Joey Logano - 7th

The pariah himself. Don't let the stats fool you. The man they call Sliced Bread will grind your bones to make said bread. He'll make it to the Round of 8 safely. But thankfully, we are in the midst of "Odd Year Logano", so he probably won't have enough steam for a full Cup run.

Christopher Bell - 6th

3 straight wins isn't a bad way to begin your season right after a crash at the Daytona 500. Though Bell hasn't appeared in victory lane since that streak, he's stayed consistent with an average finish of 12.5. Bell's got a lot of talent, but there's a lot of drivers competing for the Championship 4, and I don't see him making it.

Kyle Larson - 5th

Larson is currently tied for the lead in playoff points with William Byron. He has 16 top 10s, 11 top 5s, and 3 wins on the season. He'll probably collect one or two wins during the Playoffs and be heavily in the conversation as one of the sport's big stars. By all means, he should be running away with the Cup. I think Larson will be on top for most of the Playoffs, but something's going to happen in the Round of 8 that topples his championship hopes like a house of cards. It's been a recent trend, and with as many strong drivers as there are, the man they call Yung Money is going to be short of making the final 4.

Tyler Reddick - 4th

Reddick is a bit of a shocker pick here, I know. He's retreated a bit since his Championship 4 run last season, earning only 9 top 10s compared to 21 in 2024. But I think Reddick's gonna surprise a lot of people again. He's a driver who can run up front, keep himself out of trouble, and get consistent finishes. That's a driver that can make it far in this series. He won't be the victor, however.

William Byron - 3rd

William Byron has to be the luckiest man alive. He always seems to be in the right place at the right time, which explains his back-to-back wins at the Daytona 500. Not only that, but he's always competing for wins. It's a no-doubter he'll be in the fight at Phoenix. Feels kinda nice to be talking about the #24 like this again.

Denny Hamlin - 2nd

Denny is one of the few remaining of an old stock that used to be rampant in NASCAR. The loudmouth who speaks his mind and doesn't care what anyone thinks about him. He craves the spotlight. Needless to say, he's had it on him the whole year. 23XI, the team he co-owns with Michael Jordan, is in the midst of litigation with the sanctioning body of NASCAR over charters, which is way too long and way too complicated to explain any further. Hamlin was also returning from another quality season that didn't result in his life's goal. To be the Cup Series champion. To add insult to injury, his longtime sponsor, FedEx, pulled out of sponsoring the #11. The proverbial spotlight was becoming more like the blinding sun. Safe to say, Denny delivered. 4 wins on the season, including 2 back-to-back at Martinsville and Darlington. Unlike last year, I think Hamlin makes it into the Championship 4. This whole season screams Cup or bust. You have to consider that Hamlin is almost 45 years old, and it's highly unlikely that he can perform at such a high level for any longer. This is probably his final chance to truly make a run at the title. Unfortunately, he's going to fall short, just like all the years before. Like the myth of Sisyphus, one must imagine Denny Hamlin happy.

Ryan Blaney - 1st

Alright, this article is now over 1,700 words, and I'm getting pretty tired of writing. Blaney's winning this thing. He's had quite a few DNF's but it's not going to matter in the end. Team Penske has mastered the playoff system better than anyone, and any poor soul that dares get in the way of Captain Roger must pay with their life. The 1000-year reign of blood must march forward.

To circle back to earlier, people will always argue about which way is the best way to determine the champion, but it's all hogwash. Even in a flawed system, NASCAR always manages to be entertaining in some form. These final 10 races are going to be a trip, y'all. May the racing be good, may the drivers have good luck on their side, and may the memes run like wildfire.